Bitcoin’s $100K Hold: Supply Squeeze and Whale Activity Signal More Upside
- Keyword Financial
- Jul 7
- 3 min read
Introduction
Bitcoin has managed to stay above the $100,000 mark, trading at around $108,000, even as trading volumes on both spot and futures markets have dropped to their lowest levels in over a year. This decline in volume, which fell by more than $36 billion, suggests that retail investors—individual traders who typically drive much of the market activity—are becoming less active. Despite the price holding strong, the lack of volume raises concerns about the sustainability of the rally, as robust trading activity is usually needed to support continued price increases.
Interestingly, while retail participation has waned, there are signs that larger investors, often referred to as "whales," are quietly accumulating Bitcoin. Data shows a decline in smaller wallet activity and an increase in the movement of Bitcoin into larger wallets, indicating that these big players may be preparing for a longer-term hold. This pattern is reminiscent of mid-2023, when a similar drop in retail demand was followed by a correction and then a significant breakout, suggesting that the current market could be setting up for another major move.
Supporting the bullish outlook, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio stands at 2.26, a level historically associated with the early stages of major rallies. Additionally, the amount of Bitcoin held in over-the-counter (OTC) balances has fallen, hinting at a potential supply squeeze. If demand picks up while supply remains tight, Bitcoin could see further upside, provided these positive on-chain signals persist.
