Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price Forecast: Can Bears Drive HYPE Down to $24.19?

Introduction

Hyperliquid’s native token HYPE has extended its downtrend through November and December despite a brief 24.1% relief rally from $29.15 to $36.17. On the daily timeframe, the HYPE price chart continues to print lower highs and lower lows, confirming a firmly bearish market structure. Analysts also flag monthly HYPE unlocks of 10 million tokens as a potential source of future selling pressure, even though their full impact on Hyperliquid’s price dynamics is not yet clear. While on-chain data previously showed whales accumulating HYPE, overall sentiment around the Hyperliquid ecosystem remains cautious.

From a technical analysis standpoint, there is a key supply zone between $30.35 and $35.36, created by the latest downward push after price broke below the $29.15 support. This area is expected to act as strong resistance if HYPE attempts another bounce, with sellers likely to step in aggressively. Indicators such as the Directional Movement Index (DMI) confirm a strong bearish trend, while the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) below -0.05 signals sustained capital outflows from HYPE. Using Fibonacci extension levels anchored to the swing from $50.16 to $29.15, the next major bearish price target for Hyperliquid is projected around $24.19.

On lower timeframes, such as the 1-hour chart, HYPE shows short-term bullish momentum, but the higher timeframe downtrend dominates the overall outlook. For Hyperliquid bulls to truly flip the trend, buyers would need to reclaim and push past $36.17—an outcome the article views as unlikely given current liquidity conditions and selling pressure. Traders are advised to watch for a rejection around the $29.89–$30.68 resistance band as a potential entry area for fresh short positions, targeting the $24.19 zone. Overall, the analysis frames HYPE as a bearish altcoin setup, emphasizing risk management for traders navigating Hyperliquid price swings during this prolonged downtrend.

Background

Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE, has been in a sustained downtrend through November and December, even after a brief 24% rebound from around $29 to $36. On higher timeframes, the market structure remains clearly bearish: price has been forming lower highs and lower lows since October, a classic sign that sellers are in control. The most recent breakdown below the prior low near $29.15 confirms that the downtrend is still intact and that any short‑term bounce should be treated as a relief rally rather than a full trend reversal.

Beyond pure price action, a key structural factor for the HYPE token is its scheduled unlocks. Roughly 10 million HYPE is being released at the end of each month, adding to circulating supply. Data providers and calendars such as Tokenomist and CoinMarketCal note that an upcoming unlock of about 9.92 million HYPE (~2.6% of released supply) is scheduled for late December 2025, an event that can increase sell-side pressure if demand does not grow proportionally [TradingView / CoinMarketCal; Tokenomist]. Delphi Digital’s broader work on Hyperliquid has also highlighted unlock dynamics and tokenomics as a medium‑term overhang, even as platform usage and fee generation grow [Delphi Digital]. For a DeFi‑oriented or fintech audience, the takeaway is straightforward: expanding supply plus cautious demand tends to create a headwind for price, especially during risk‑off market phases.

Technical Picture: Supply Zones, Trend Structure, and Bearish Targets

From a technical analysis perspective, the daily HYPE/USDT chart shows a well‑defined supply zone in the $30.35–$35.36 region. A “supply zone” is an area on the chart where aggressive selling previously originated, often leaving behind a strong impulse move lower. When price revisits this region, it frequently encounters renewed selling as earlier participants exit breakeven, new shorts enter, and existing shorts add to their positions. In HYPE’s case, the breakdown below $29.15 and subsequent selling swing mark this $30–$35 band as a key resistance area where any bounce is statistically more likely to be sold into.

Momentum and capital‑flow indicators reinforce the bearish picture. The Directional Movement Index (DMI) on the daily timeframe shows a strong negative trend, typically characterized by a dominant -DI line and an elevated ADX, signaling that downside momentum is well‑established. At the same time, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is below ‑0.05, indicating net capital outflows from the asset over the lookback period. For a DeFi/Fintech reader, CMF below zero essentially says: on balance, volume is heavier on down days than on up days, which is consistent with distribution rather than accumulation.

To project potential downside, the analysis applies Fibonacci extension levels to the prior swing move from about $50.16 down to $29.15. Fibonacci extensions are a common tool for identifying probable profit‑taking and support zones beyond a previous low. In this case, the next major bearish target is around $24.19, a level that aligns with the broader downtrend and could act as a magnet if selling continues. While lower‑timeframe charts (such as the 1‑hour) have occasionally shown short‑term bullish structure and active uptrends, the higher timeframe (1‑day) trend typically takes precedence. For active traders, this suggests that intraday strength into the $29.89–$30.68 area should be viewed as a potential opportunity to position with the prevailing trend rather than to fade it.

What Bulls Need to Change the Story — and How Traders Can Navigate the Setup

For HYPE bulls, the requirements to invalidate the current bearish thesis are clear but demanding. The recent break of support around $29.15 and the series of lower highs mean that any sustainable trend reversal would likely require a decisive move back above $36.17 on the daily chart. This is the prior swing high from the early-December bounce. A daily close and follow‑through above that level would signal that buyers have absorbed supply in the $30–$35 region and are strong enough to reclaim lost ground. Until that happens, the path of least resistance remains down, especially given the backdrop of monthly token unlocks and continued net outflows from the asset.

Under current conditions, the more probable scenario (not guaranteed, but better aligned with the data) is that relief rallies into resistance are sold, particularly near the $30–$35 band highlighted earlier. The 1‑hour chart is still relevant: it can help intraday traders time entries and manage risk. For example, traders might wait for the 1‑hour structure to shift from bullish to bearish—such as a break of a local higher low—while price is trading near resistance, then look to enter short positions with clearly defined invalidation levels above the zone. Targets could be staged, with partial profit‑taking near intermediate supports and a stretch target closer to the $24.19 Fibonacci extension if bearish momentum persists.

Zooming out, it is also worth situating HYPE within the broader Hyperliquid ecosystem. Despite the token’s drawdown, the protocol continues to generate significant perpetual futures volume and fee revenue, and has been expanding via features such as permissionless perp markets and integrations that aim to attract both sophisticated DeFi users and more traditional trading flows [CoinMarketCap HYPE Update; Tokenomist]. For fundamentally inclined market participants, this creates a familiar tension: a growing protocol with a token under pressure from emissions and unlocks. In practical terms, this means that both directional traders and prospective long‑term holders should pay close attention to (1) the $30–$35 resistance zone, (2) upcoming token unlock events and their size relative to daily liquidity, and (3) whether on‑chain and order‑book data begin to show sustained accumulation rather than opportunistic dip‑buying. Until key resistance levels are reclaimed and supply overhang is better absorbed, HYPE remains a structurally bearish but technically tradeable asset within the DeFi derivatives landscape.