PENGU's Comeback: How Whale Activity and Inflows Are Boosting the Memecoin

Introduction

Solana’s memecoin Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) jumped 17% as the week kicked off, rebounding alongside a broader altcoin recovery. Despite the bounce, quarterly returns sit near -7% after a sharp drawdown. On the 3-hour chart, PENGU hovered around $0.026, with Bollinger Bands narrowing as volatility cooled, the MACD flipping bullish, and the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) near 0.01. For momentum continuation, bulls need to reclaim the $0.030 support to target $0.040, with the previous high at $0.046 offering a potential Q4 upside marker. 

On-chain data signaled renewed confidence. Nansen flagged a 6.3x spike in “Smart Money” inflows, while whales boosted holdings by 3.2% and exchange supply fell 8.78%, indicating net outflows and accumulation. These flows often tighten spreads and support higher liquidity, which can stabilize price action after capitulation. The combination of whale accumulation, exchange outflows, and increasing stable liquidity suggests sentiment may be shifting from fear to cautious optimism.

Derivatives metrics also strengthened. CoinGlass reported long liquidations of about $52 million—often a reset that clears leverage for bullish reversals—while 24-hour trading volume rose to roughly $1.07 billion and Open Interest rebounded to about $160 million (from $134 million), after peaking near $342 million. Sustained capital inflows and firm Open Interest through Q4 could enable a retest of $0.040 and possibly $0.046, contingent on a risk-on market backdrop. 

Backgound

Pudgy Penguins (PENGU), a leading Solana-based memecoin, climbed 17% to start the week, recovering alongside a broader altcoin bounce after a sharp market drawdown. While PENGU’s quarterly return remains around -7% after recent volatility, short-term technicals show stabilization: Bollinger Bands narrowed as volatility cooled, the MACD flipped bullish, and the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) hovered near 0.01—indicating modest capital inflows. Price reclaimed the mid-band near $0.026; a decisive move back above the $0.030 support could open a path toward $0.040, with a stretch target at the prior swing high near $0.046. 

What’s driving the rebound? On-chain accumulation and “smart money” flows

On-chain data suggests renewed confidence. Nansen flagged a 6.3x spike in “Smart Money” inflows—wallets historically associated with profitable strategies—coinciding with whales increasing holdings by about 3.2% and exchange supply dropping ~8.78%, signaling net outflows and accumulation. Reduced exchange balances often correlate with lower immediate sell pressure. This pattern mirrors broader crypto market bottoms where long-term holders and market makers accumulate after forced liquidations. For context, research on accumulation and exchange outflows as early reversal signals has been observed across cycles by analytics firms like Glassnode and IntoTheBlock.

Derivatives reset: Liquidations, volume, and open interest

Derivatives metrics strengthened in tandem. As per CoinGlass, long liquidations of roughly $52 million cleared excess leverage, often paving the way for cleaner upside. At the same time, 24-hour trading volume rose to roughly $1.07 billion, and Open Interest (OI) rebounded to about $160 million from $134 million (after peaking near $342 million previously), indicating traders are re-engaging with tighter risk. Historically, leverage resets followed by rising OI and spot outflows can create favorable conditions for short-term rallies in volatile segments like memecoins. These dynamics align with findings documented by The Block Research and Kaiko on how liquidity, volume, and OI shape short-term price discovery. 

Key terms explained

• Smart Money: A label used by analytics platforms (e.g., Nansen) for addresses with strong historical performance, sophisticated strategies, or known market-maker activity. Their accumulation is often seen as a constructive signal.

• Exchange Outflows: Net withdrawals of tokens from centralized exchanges. Persistent outflows can reduce immediate sell pressure and imply long-term holding intent.

• Open Interest (OI): The total value of outstanding futures and perpetual contracts. Rising OI alongside price and volume can indicate growing participation and trend confidence.

Technical context and levels to watch

• Support/Resistance: Reclaiming and holding above ~$0.030 could validate momentum toward ~$0.040. The prior high near ~$0.046 is a logical Q4 target if risk appetite persists.

• Momentum: With MACD bullish and CMF slightly positive, incremental inflows help, but a break-and-hold above resistance zones is crucial for confirmation.

• Volatility: Narrowing Bollinger Bands often precede larger moves; watch for a volatility expansion in the direction of the next break.

Market structure and broader backdrop

Memecoins remain highly sensitive to broader crypto liquidity and risk sentiment. If capital inflows, OI, and exchange outflows remain supportive through Q4, PENGU could continue to rebuild its trend. Off-chain catalysts—such as sustained crypto market recovery, Solana ecosystem liquidity, and bid depth across major venues—also matter. Notably, Solana’s improving DeFi activity and low-cost execution have supported memecoin liquidity this cycle, as tracked by DefiLlama and ecosystem dashboards like Artemis.

Bottom line

PENGU’s 17% rebound is backed by constructive on-chain flows (smart money, whale accumulation, exchange outflows) and healthier derivatives structure (volume up, OI recovering, leverage reset). A sustained move above $0.030 would strengthen the case for $0.040–$0.046 in Q4, provided broader market conditions remain risk-on. As always with memecoins, volatility is elevated—risk management and position sizing are essential.