Is Bitcoin's Support Strong? Derivatives Data Offers a Nuanced View
- Keyword Financial
- Jul 25
- 3 min read
Introduction
Bitcoin recently experienced a 4% price drop, falling below $115,000 for the first time in two weeks, largely due to the monthly expiration of derivatives contracts that wiped out $390 million in futures positions. Despite this correction, data from Bitcoin futures and options markets suggest that traders remain neutral rather than bearish. The two-month futures premium is still within the normal range, and while the options market briefly showed signs of stress—with the 25% delta skew spiking to 10%—it quickly returned to a balanced level, indicating that large traders are not expecting a major move in either direction.
Market participants are also closely watching large Bitcoin wallet transfers, such as the recent movement of 80,000 BTC by an entity associated with Galaxy Digital. However, there is no sign of panic among traders, as evidenced by stablecoin demand in China. Tether (USDT) is trading at only a modest 0.5% discount to the US dollar, suggesting that retail crypto demand remains steady and that the recent price dip has not triggered widespread fear or selling pressure in the region.
Overall, while Bitcoin traders are cautious and not rushing to buy at current levels, there is also no indication of critical stress or systemic risk in the market. The lack of enthusiasm in derivatives markets reflects broader concerns about global trade tensions and the possibility of a US economic recession, but the $115,000 support level appears to be holding for now. This neutral stance suggests that, despite recent volatility, the crypto market remains relatively stable and resilient at this key price point.
